Sam Altman and Dario Amodei walk back their AI job apocalypse predictions

In a surprising shift, Sam Altman and Dario Amodei, CEOs of OpenAI and Anthropic respectively, are walking back their dire predictions about AI's impact on the job market. According to a report by Fortune, both executives have significantly altered their tone in recent weeks, downplaying the threat of widespread job displacement. In a recent interview with Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn, Altman expressed his delight in being wrong about the pace of job displacement.

"I'm delighted to be wrong about this," he said. "I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than has actually happened." This marks a significant departure from his comments just last June, when he warned that entire job categories could vanish. Amodei had previously sounded an even more alarmist note, suggesting that half of all white-collar jobs were at risk.

However, he now frames automation as a productivity multiplier, saying: "If you automate 90% of the job, then everyone does the 10% of the job" - which then scales back to 100 percent and boosts productivity tenfold. The timing of this change in tone is notable, as both OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly preparing for massive IPOs that could value their companies at over a trillion dollars. Meanwhile, a study by the Yale Budget Lab has found no major shifts in jobs most exposed to AI so far.

Another study suggests that the job crisis among coders, writers, and other AI-exposed workers began before ChatGPT launched, casting doubt on simple narratives about a direct AI job apocalypse. As the AI industry continues to evolve, it's clear that the relationship between AI and employment is more complex than initially thought. While some jobs may be displaced, others may be created or transformed in ways that boost productivity and economic growth.