1 in 4 World Cup Matches Could Be Played in Dangerous Temperatures

Extreme heat will be one of the biggest challenges for players and fans during the 2026 FIFA World Cup . According to an analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA), around 25 percent of the 104 matches of the tournament could be played under temperatures that exceed the recommended thermal safety limits. The study points out that the probability of facing these conditions is almost double that recorded in the 1994 tournament held in the United States.

The projections were developed using a statistical model designed to calculate the probability of each match being played in extremely hot conditions. To assess the risk of physiological heat stress at host venues, the scientists used the wet-bulb globe temperature, known as WBGT. This indicator provides a more accurate measure of the thermal sensation experienced by the human body, because it incorporates not only ambient temperature, but variables such as humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed as well.

The analysis individually examined all the cities in the United States, Mexico, and Canada that will host 2026 World Cup matches. To do so, it considered specific local factors, including altitude, ambient humidity, regional climate, and the urban characteristics of each venue.

The researchers analyzed historical daily WBGT records for the period between June 11 and July 19, the scheduled dates of the tournament. They then compared these values with the safety limits set by FIFPro, the international soccer players’ union.

The organization set a WBGT index of 26° Celsius (78.8° Fahrenheit) as the threshold above which additional hydration and cooling measures would need to be implemented to protect the players. A temperature of 28° C (82.4° F) is considered high risk, the ceiling at which the organization recommended delaying or even suspending matches to avoid a potential health hazard.

Based on these parameters, the study concludes that one in four matches could be played under the first risk scenario, while at least five matches will be played in conditions equal to or above 82° F on the WBGT index.

The report warns that Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Houston present a particularly worrisome scenario. The findings indicate that these cities have a return period of just one year for events reaching 82.4° Fahrenheit WBGT. In other words, there is a high probability that these extreme conditions will recur virtually every year during the World Cup dates.

The same frequency trend for the 78.8° Fahrenheit WBGT threshold is also observed in the US cities of Atlanta, Boston, and New York, as well as in the Mexican city of Monterrey.