The AI race shifts away from frontier models

For several weeks this summer, the AI industry was fixated on Anthropic's latest frontier models and Washington's fight to control who was granted access to them. But while everyone was watching the frontier, developers kept building — and they weren't waiting around for permission from the Anthropics and OpenAIs of the world. Chinese open-weight models accounted for 41% of downloads on Hugging Face this spring, surpassing U.S.

models. On OpenRouter, the top six most popular models are all open models from Chinese firms including Tencent, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Z.ai. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 trails in seventh place, at the time of this writing.

And data from Vercel shows that open weight models are absorbing much of the volume-heavy infrastructure of AI apps, while closed models operate as the higher-cost, premium layer. Open models handled nearly a third of AI requests on the platform in June. Those platforms only capture one slice of the AI ecosystem; in particular, they leave out sessions hosted by major labs, which likely account for the bulk of OpenAI and Anthropic's usage.

But open-source models' large and growing share of the market raises a difficult question: How much do frontier models still matter if most production AI ends up running on cheaper, customizable alternatives? Some see the growth of open-source models as a sign that the most intelligent models may end up being used for only the most specialized use cases. 'Maybe in a few years, the frontier models will be for experimenting and [for] some really high value tasks, and most of the production workloads will actually be powered either by private models within companies or by open source models,' Hugging Face CEO Clem Delangue said on a recent episode of Equity.

Hugging Face is a platform and developer community best known for hosting, sharing, and helping companies deploy open models. Delangue says Hugging Face's customers and community members are increasingly touting the benefits of owning their own AI models rather than renting them, a trend that's picked up steam in the cold light of day after getting the bill associated with the cost of scaling closed frontier models. 'If you're an AI company or a technology company, you don't want to outsource your core capabilities to another company, to a black box API that you don't control, don't have any visibility on, and don't really have any sort of ownership,' Delangue said.

That shift, Delangue argues, is reflected in the activity happening on Hugging Face. A new repository is created every seven seconds on the platform, which hosts almost three million public models and one million public datasets, per Delangue. That points to a different picture than the 'one model to rule them all,' he says.

In reality, it looks more like companies using many different models, many of which are customized for their specific use case. Half of all Fortune 500 firms are using Hugging Face to deploy their own private models and open source models, he says. The growing popularity of open models coincides with a steady stream of increasingly capable releases from Chinese AI labs.