For Eclipse, the $2.5B Cerebras win is just the start of realizing its physical-world thesis

When Lior Susan founded Eclipse Ventures in 2015, the firm's thesis of digitizing the physical world was met with skepticism in Silicon Valley. The era of enterprise software and SaaS dominated the tech landscape, and Susan's vision seemed out of step. It wasn't until recently that Eclipse's bet began to pay off.

The firm's $6.5 million Series A investment in Cerebras Systems in 2016 yielded a total return of $2.5 billion when the semiconductor company went public this week. Over time, Eclipse invested a total of $147 million in Cerebras, generating a 17-fold return at the IPO price of $185 per share. For Susan, the windfall from Cerebras is only the beginning.

He believes that because 85% of global GDP is tied to the physical world, investing in companies beyond pure software could be immensely lucrative. Public markets and startup founders are now recognizing the value of physical-world tech, with shares of TSMC and Micron hitting all-time highs. A growing cohort of elite founders is eager to build startups at the intersection of hardware and software.

Susan noted that the real moat in software is gone, as companies can now create their own bespoke software tools using AI models like Anthropic's Claude Code or OpenAI's latest models. However, when it comes to tech that touches the physical world, such as semiconductors, manufacturing requires machines, silicon, and clean rooms. Eclipse's portfolio companies across sectors like robotics, energy, and defense raised nearly $15 billion from outside backers last year, and that momentum continued into Q1 2026 with $4.5 billion in late-stage funding.

The firm's early track record pales in comparison, with its portfolio companies raising less than $4 billion in total during its first eight years. The recent follow-on rounds across Eclipse's portfolio are a testament to the firm's success. Companies like Wayve, True Anomaly, Bedrock Robotics, and Oxide Computer secured massive late-stage deals, with Eclipse as the Series A investor for all four.

While AI may seem like the driving force behind investor enthusiasm for physical-world tech, Susan argues that other powerful tailwinds are at play, including capital, customer demand, talent, and policy.